The Patriots offense still has a lot of issues. But the Jets keep gaining momentum and confidence. The Patriots just beat the Jets 22-17 a few weeks ago. Maybe the Eagles just take out their frustration from Monday's loss on the Colts, but it's a lot of points. Jonathan Taylor finally looked healthy last week and had his first big game of the season. Without monster rookie defensive tackle Jordan Davis, who is on IR, the Eagles have been vulnerable against the run. One thing leads me to the Colts and the points: Indianapolis' run game against the Eagles' run D. This one could be some 3-0 debacle if the game stays there and the weather forecast holds. A few feet of snow seems better for the underdog and run-first Browns, if "three to six feet of snow" can really help any team. Browns (+8) over BillsĪs of now, the Bills are still hosting the Browns for what might be a snowpocalypse. Take the three points, though it's not like you'd feel good about either side. They're a team that doesn't have a lot of positives. On the other side, the Falcons' good start has melted away. That's what happens when you trade your two best defensive players and your offense doesn't have much help around Fields. Justin Fields has been playing really well, but the Bears aren't winning. In the Daily Sweat today, I talked about how this line is disrespectful to the Titans. Here are the rest of the picks against the spread for Week 11, with point spreads from BetMGM: Titans (+3) over Packers Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson celebrates a touchdown against the Bills. It won't be an upset if they beat the Vikings. I'll trust all the underlying stats and take the Cowboys as a 1.5-point favorite. Now the test is if they can go on the road and beat an 8-1 Vikings team. Dallas has been excellent since a bad Week 1 loss. It's not ideal to blow a 14-point fourth-quarter lead but had the Cowboys executed better on fourth-and-3 in overtime, they probably win the game. The Cowboys are coming off a loss to the Green Bay Packers and there has been a lot of conversation over the fourth-down decision by Mike McCarthy that didn't work out. The Cowboys are also better in point differential, a more common stat. In per-play differential, the Cowboys rank much higher than the Vikings. The Vikings, who are tied with the Philadelphia Eagles for best record in the NFL, are just 17th in Football Outsiders' DVOA. Advanced stats still don't love the Vikings, who have won a lot of close games and games in which they've been out-gained. The Vikings being underdogs to the Cowboys is also a good way to test how you feel about analytics. If the Cowboys win Sunday, you'll hear it described as an upset. Often commentators will declare a game in which a team with a better record loses an "upset," but bettors know that's not really the case. Here’s hoping that Darrisaw has enough time to get better and ready for the stretch run for the Vikings.There is sometimes a disconnect between bettors and those who don't understand it (though, with sports betting spreading rapidly, that gap is shrinking). The Vikings are already facing an uphill climb in the second half, down 23-3 to the Cowboys, and now they’ll have to attempt to mount a comeback without the player that has been, arguably, the best left tackle in the league this season. There’s probably no chance that he’ll be cleared before then, and honestly it’s probably best for him if he’s not. With Darrisaw facing his second concussion in two weeks, it seems quite likely that he’ll be out of the rest of today’s game and that he’s probably going to miss the Thanksgiving game against the New England Patriots as well. This is incredibly bad news for Darrisaw, as he left the game against the Buffalo Bills with a concussion as well and went through the concussion protocol this past week. For the second week in a row, a key piece of the Minnesota Vikings offense is missing and it could be a while before he comes back.ĭuring the first quarter of the Vikings’ game against the Dallas Cowboys, left tackle Christian Darrisaw left the game with a concussion.
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